Tonight sees Phantoms and Basingstoke Bison going head to head in what has been dubbed the “title decider” but how does it work, what needs to happen and what are the assumptions being made ?
First, the easy bits. The assumption has to be that NEXT weekend, Bison will beat both Invicta and Cardiff and that Phantoms will beat Streatham so if you bank those results, it leaves Bison two points ahead going into tonight’s game which is why it is, in effect, the title decider. So what are the permutations ……….
Bison win the game in regular time
Bison win the title and they win it tonight on our ice no matter what happens next weekend. Its all over tonight !
Bison win the game in overtime or via penalty shots
Bison will need just one point in total from their games with Cardiff and Invicta to win the title. Mathematically, it won’t be all over tonight but, in reality, it will be !
Phantoms win the game in regular time by one goal
This would lead to a perfect tie on points and head-to-head record so it would then go down to league goal difference. Phantoms would end the night +6 ahead of Bison on goal difference but it would come down to who registers the biggest goalfest next weekend. Basically, Bison would need to boost their goal difference by +7 more than Phantoms and given they are playing the bottom two sides in the league, it has to be very highly likely that they will succeed. It won’t be over but Bison would have one hand on the trophy.
Phantoms win the game in regular time by more than one goal
That’s the dream result ! That would mean that a win over Streatham next week would guarantee the title for Phantoms as the goal difference in the head-to-head games would favour Phantoms and there is nothing Bison can do to overhaul them next weekend.
Phantoms win the game in overtime or via penalty shots
This would require Bison to take three points from their two remaining games to take the title ….. or, in other words, Phantoms would need either Cardiff or Invicta to beat Bison in regular time next weekend and that isn’t going to happen so, in effect, all over !
That’s it so if all of the above does your head in then here is the executive summary. Phantoms MUST win tonight by TWO CLEAR GOALS or more or the title goes to Bison. If Phantoms succeed, they would win the title next Saturday if they beat Streatham here in Bretton !